What the 2026 expected stats tell us about these NY Mets pitchers

Tim Boyle analyzes the 2026 predictive analytics for New York Mets pitchers Justin Hagenman, Tobias Myers, and Devin Williams to assess how the data-driven club might handle them for 2027. Boyle highlights that expected stats present contrasting outlooks, identifying underlying concerns for Hagenman despite a 3.38 ERA, alongside promising peripheral metrics for Myers and Williams that sharply diverge from their actual results.

Boyle notes that Hagenman's low strikeout rate and .560 expected slugging percentage point toward regression. Conversely, Myers recorded a 4.15 xERA compared to his 5.53 ERA, and Williams posted a 3.22 xERA versus an actual 4.43 ERA, with Boyle arguing both pitchers showed strong underlying indicators that could warrant retention.