World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler enters the 2026 U.S. Open as the clear favorite to win at Shinnecock Hills. He is joined by former champions Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, along with the consistent Xander Schauffele, as the leading contenders.
Scheffler’s position is built on statistical dominance. He leads the PGA Tour in several key Strokes Gained categories, including total performance and ball striking, which are critical metrics for navigating the demanding Shinnecock layout. A victory this week would secure the career Grand Slam for the American, adding another layer of significance to his campaign.
Just behind him is Rory McIlroy, who arrives as the reigning Masters champion. McIlroy missed the cut when the U.S. Open was last held at this venue in 2018, but he returns as a more experienced competitor seeking his first U.S. Open title in over a decade. His ability to manage difficult courses will be tested.
Jon Rahm also presents a strong case, underscored by a recent runner-up finish at the PGA Championship. A win for Rahm would be his first on the PGA Tour since his move to LIV Golf in 2023, representing a major statement on one of golf’s biggest stages. Xander Schauffele rounds out the top contenders, bringing a record of remarkable consistency into the event. With five top-10 finishes this season, his aggressive approach and strong short game are well-suited for the challenges Shinnecock presents to the field.
