The Expected Premier League Table MD8: xPts – Arsenal above City, Spurs above Chelsea, Forest hard done by?

Through the first seven matchdays of the Premier League season, Opta's expected points (xPts) model places Arsenal at the top of the table after outperforming opponents in expected goals in every match. Meanwhile, Manchester City lead the league in expected goals overperformance by nearly eight points, though their defensive concessions have generated high-quality opposing chances. Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth also show substantial positive underlying metrics compared to their real-world league positions.

Several sides remain heavily penalized by variance, with Nottingham Forest sitting 13 spots below their xPts expectation and Sunderland ranking 15th despite remaining bottom in reality. Brighton & Hove Albion maintain a top-three spot in both tables behind a multi-faceted attack, while Manchester United have generated lower xG than their opponents across their past five matches.