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How close to the crown? Larson’s paths to clinching a third Cup Series title at Martinsville

Kyle Larson has one hand on the NASCAR Cup Series championship trophy and could officially clinch the crown Sunday at Martinsville Speedway. Here’s his roadmap…

RACER

Published: Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 5:32 PM

Key Things to Know

Kyle Larson can clinch his third NASCAR Cup Series title this weekend at Martinsville Speedway.
Larson clinches the championship outright by scoring 59 points, regardless of how other drivers perform.
Larson leads Denny Hamlin by 73 points and holds a 36.8% chance to clinch at Martinsville.

The Story in 60 Seconds

Kyle Larson holds a 73-point lead over Denny Hamlin and could officially secure the NASCAR Cup Series championship this Sunday at Martinsville Speedway. With only seven drivers remaining in mathematical contention, Larson can clinch the title outright by scoring 59 points this weekend regardless of other results, holding a 36.8% chance to wrap up the championship early.

According to Racing Insights, Larson holds a 92.3% overall chance of winning the title. An early clinch would make him the first driver to secure the championship before the finale since Matt Kenseth in 2003, while also positioning Hendrick Motorsports to claim its 16th drivers' title.

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How close to the crown? Larson’s paths to clinching a third Cup Series title at Martinsville

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