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“Need 70 Points a Race”: Insider’s Insane Mathematical Reality Leaves Kyle Larson’s Rivals With Zero Margin

“It’s not going to be that way. So, I just think you guys need to take a breath and relax.

Published: Monday, 12 October 2026 at 8:44 PM
“Need 70 Points a Race”: Insider’s Insane Mathematical Reality Leaves Kyle Larson’s Rivals With Zero Margin
Key Things to Know
  • Insider mathematical projections leave Kyle Larson's NASCAR rivals facing an extreme points requirement across the final three races.
  • Larson retained his championship points lead despite a cut tire and crash leading to a 34th-place finish at Phoenix.
  • Tyler Reddick won the Freeway Insurance 500 at Phoenix Raceway to move within 56 points of the championship lead.
The Story in 60 Seconds

Calculations highlighted by insider Jeff Gluck demonstrate the steep mathematical challenge confronting Kyle Larson's NASCAR Cup Series championship rivals. Despite suffering a cut tire and crash at Phoenix Raceway that resulted in a 34th-place finish, Larson maintained the points lead, leaving competitors like Denny Hamlin facing daunting requirements to overcome the deficit over the final three races.

Tyler Reddick captured the victory at Phoenix Raceway to tighten the Chase standings, moving within 56 points of Larson. Meanwhile, Hamlin managed to reduce his gap to 31 points out of first place, though Hendrick Motorsports crew chief Cliff Daniels and Larson's No. 5 Chevrolet team remain in contention for the title.

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