BPI projections for the NBA season: Ranking all 30 teams and stacking Finals favorites

ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) released its 2026-27 NBA projections, simulating the season thousands of times using availability, betting markets, and schedule data. The Oklahoma City Thunder lead the championship forecast with approximately a 25% chance to win the title, driven by the league's top-ranked defense. The model also ranks the Denver Nuggets as the premier offense, led by Nikola Jokic, while identifying the San Antonio Spurs among the leading contenders alongside Oklahoma City.

Injuries heavily shaped individual team outlooks, dropping the Golden State Warriors to No. 20 due to Jimmy Butler III's torn ACL, compared to No. 12 at full strength. Joel Embiid's projected availability positions the Philadelphia 76ers with the East's third-best playoff BPI and an 8% title probability. Additionally, the Thunder hold an 11% chance to secure the No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft under new anti-tanking rules.