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Establishing the ideal run-pass variance in an NFL is a challenging balancing act that often looks different for every team. Analytics strongly suggest clubs should be throwing it more than they’re running it, but when you’re a team with an…

Chris Trapasso argues that while the Buffalo Bills should give running back James Cook more touches, the offense must remain committed to an early-down passing philosophy. Following Cook receiving only 12 carries in Buffalo's Week 4 loss to the Patriots, Trapasso contends that leaning heavily on quarterback Josh Allen through the air on first and second downs remains the team's most effective approach.
Trapasso notes that Buffalo ranked fourth in non-garbage time EPA per play during Weeks 1 and 2 while passing on 58.0% of early downs. However, the offense dropped to 16th in EPA per play across Weeks 3 and 4 when their early-down pass rate fell to 47.4%, which the writer links to declining offensive efficiency.
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