Tampa Bay Lightning projections: Elite on paper, but can they get it done when it matters?

The Tampa Bay Lightning enter the upcoming season projected as Stanley Cup favorites despite recent playoff struggles. After compiling a plus-133 goal differential over the past two regular seasons, statistical projections give Tampa Bay an 88 percent chance of reaching the playoffs and a 12 percent chance of winning the championship.

Questions remain regarding the roster's postseason execution, having lost five consecutive playoff series since their 2022 Eastern Conference final victory. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has recorded sub-.900 save percentages across his last four postseasons, while forward Nikita Kucherov was limited to one goal during a first-round elimination against the Montreal Canadiens.