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If we assume Las Vegas isn't truly a contender in the AFC West, it comes down to Kansas City and Denver, which have already split the season series, so the Chiefs have to win the next three games.

The Kansas City Chiefs are entering a critical three-game stretch against sub-.500 opponents after falling behind the Denver Broncos in the AFC West race. Following a 28-24 defeat in Denver where Kansas City surrendered an 11-point fourth-quarter lead, quarterback Patrick Mahomes acknowledged that the team is now locked in a tight divisional battle.
Tod Palmer argues that Kansas City must capitalize on upcoming matchups against the Jets, Falcons, and Cardinals before entering a grueling late-season schedule. The Broncos lead the division at 6-2, leaving the 5-2 Chiefs facing five consecutive games against .500-or-better opponents starting in late November.
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