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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2027

Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for well over a decade.

Published: Friday, 2 October 2026 at 8:10 PM
Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2027
Key Things to Know
  • MLB Trade Rumors shared its arbitration salary projections model designed by Matt Swartz.
  • The algorithm evaluates playing time, position, role, and performance metrics while adjusting for inflation.
  • Ethan Hullihen projects the unofficial Super Two service time cutoff line at 2.133 years.
The Story in 60 Seconds

MLB Trade Rumors has introduced its projected arbitration salaries model created by Matt Swartz. The proprietary algorithm projects salary figures for eligible players by factoring in playing time, position, role, performance statistics, and inflation. The projections are designed to help readers evaluate team payroll situations rather than serve as direct negotiating scorecards for agents and clubs.

Final service time figures and the Super Two cutoff remain unofficial, though contributor Ethan Hullihen projects the cutoff at 2.133 years. Meeting that mark would qualify players such as Tyron Guerrero and Jordan Beck. The article also notes that pre-tender deals often differ from normal arbitration comparables, and bought-out club options return players to the arbitration pool.

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