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Arsenal should be top of Premier League table despite their own failings

Manchester City and Arsenal are both fluky frauds. Not our words, but the words of Opta’s Expected Premier League Table.

By Dave Tickner · Football 365

Published: Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 8:25 AM

Key Things to Know

Dave Tickner argues Arsenal should lead the Premier League based on Opta's expected points model.
Manchester City are deemed the largest overachievers, sitting 5.7 points above their expected total.
Arsenal themselves have reportedly claimed 4.2 points more than Opta's underlying metrics suggest they deserve.

The Story in 60 Seconds

Football365's Dave Tickner examines Opta's Expected Premier League table, arguing that Arsenal should sit atop the standings despite overperforming their expected metrics by 4.2 points. The piece looks at several clubs that have accrued more actual points than their underlying performances warrant according to expected points (xPts) data.

Tickner notes that table-toppers Manchester City are the biggest overperformers, having accumulated 5.7 points more than expected. Newcastle United, Chelsea, and Liverpool are also highlighted as teams whose real-world results significantly outstrip their underlying statistics.

Read the full article on Football 365

Arsenal should be top of Premier League table despite their own failings

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