Comparing St Louis Cardinals projections from this spring to the end of season results

Viva El Birdos writer George Bowles reviewed preseason projections for the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals, comparing statistical systems against the team's final results. Bowles noted that a blend of systems, including ZiPS, correctly projected a 78-win ceiling for the sub-.500 Cardinals, whereas his own preseason forecast of 85 wins proved overly optimistic.

Bowles highlighted notable individual divergences from projections, observing that rookie JJ Wetherholt generated 4.6 WAR against a 2.5 projection. Additionally, the Cardinals' pitching staff outperformed consensus forecasts by producing 12.9 WAR compared to an expected 8 WAR, while position players collectively underperformed projections.