Data-backed NFL bets: Washington is a live underdog against Indianapolis in Week 4

PFF analyst Judah Fortgang argues that the Washington Commanders offer betting value against the Indianapolis Colts in their upcoming neutral-site London matchup. Despite Indianapolis being listed as 3.5-point favorites, Fortgang highlights that Washington has demonstrated superior efficiency on both sides of the ball through three weeks based on weighted EPA metrics.

The analysis points out that Washington ranks third in EPA per rush allowed, presenting a difficult matchup for Indianapolis' run-heavy attack. Additionally, Fortgang notes that if Jayden Daniels remains sidelined, backup quarterback Marcus Mariota faces a favorable test against a Colts defense that struggles to generate pressure.