MLB Wild Card Series 2026 odds: Which team is more likely to make it to the Divisional Round?

The 2026 MLB postseason opens on Tuesday with four best-of-three Wild Card Series. The New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, and San Diego Padres all hold home-field advantage as host teams in their matchups. Projections give the Yankees a 60.2% probability of advancing over the Boston Red Sox, while the Astros hold a 57.1% chance against the Chicago White Sox.

In the National League, the Atlanta Braves hold a 53.3% chance to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies, backed by pitcher Chris Sale. The San Diego Padres are projected at 52.1% to advance past the Chicago Cubs, led by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill.