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Why ‘Expected Goals’ Can’t Tell the Full Devils Story

Expected goals have recently become a staple of hockey analysis. For the New Jersey Devils, however, the numbers help illustrate…

By Daniel Amoia · Sportsnaut

Published: Tuesday, 13 October 2026 at 7:06 PM

Key Things to Know

Daniel Amoia argues expected goals metrics mask the New Jersey Devils' persistent finishing issues across multiple seasons.
Since 2024-25, the Devils scored 291 five-on-five goals from 363.28 expected goals, leading the NHL in underperformance.
The writer notes New Jersey finished more than a goal below expected in approximately 38 percent of games.

The Story in 60 Seconds

Daniel Amoia argues that expected goals statistics fail to tell the full story regarding the New Jersey Devils' performance. Since the 2024-25 season, the Devils have underperformed their 5-on-5 expected goals by 72.28, scoring 291 goals despite generating 363.28 expected goals, making them the NHL's worst underperformers over that span.

Amoia suggests the Devils must rely on high shot volume to overcome finishing limitations, comparing their path to the Carolina Hurricanes. While New Jersey currently leads the league with 36.2 shots per game and holds a 61.77% expected goals share, the writer notes that these early-season numbers stem from a small sample size.

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Why ‘Expected Goals’ Can’t Tell the Full Devils Story

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